The least predictable league in the sporting world
returned on Thursday night, as the Baltimore Ravens and Denver
Broncos kicked off the new NFL season. Eight months after the Ravens
stunned the home favourite Broncos with a double overtime victory in
the divisional round of the playoffs, the Denver secured their
revenge against a very different Baltimore team to the one that
lifted the Lombardi Trophy in February.
Gone are their talismen Ray Lewis and Ed Reed,
along with a host of other names, and although the Ravens have
rebuilt their defense with the likes of former Bronco Elvis Dumervil,
them seemed slow and off the pace in Denver. The y remain a threat,
but repeating their title is likely to be a bridge too far. The loss
of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta leaves the offense over-reliant on
Ray Rice on the ground and Torrey Smith through the air, and probably
asks too much of Joe Flacco, despite his maturity in last year's
playoff run. The demands of being reigning champions, having the
shortest offseason, seeing your talent plucked by other teams and
living with a target on your back, make repeating hard, and although
they stand a good chance in their division, a playoff run seems
beyond them on Thursday's showing.
Where then, are the contenders? The NFC is again
the stronger of the conferences. The San Francisco 49ers look
well-equipped to overcome the curse of the Super Bowl losers, despite
their receiving corps suffering serious injuries to Michael Crabtree
and Mario Manningham. Colin Kaepernick will have had his first full
preseason as a starter and should continue to develop, whilst the
defense and running game should pick up where they left off. Division
rival Seattle Seahawks are in a similar situation. They retained
their talent from a year ago, but will be without their blockbuster
trade signing from Minnesota, wide receiver Percy Harvin, for much of
the season, due to injury.
The danger for both teams is that there is no
longer any element of surprise, opponents will be expecting
Kaepernick and Russell Wilson's running threat. There are unlikely to
be many repeats of the 49ers' playoff win over Green Bay when the
Packers were woefully unable to cope with the read-option plays from
the quarterback position. Both men will need to throw more accurately
and show development in their game management skills. The ability of
defences to respond to the read-option after it was successfully
adopted by several teams last year, will play a critical role in
shaping the year's results.
There are echoes of wildcat formation that became fashionable in 2008 and 2009 and was very effective at first when only the Miami Dolphins used it, but soon faded once it was adopted widely and the surprise element was gone. There is no substitute for good quarterbacking, and though the read-option may not be a gimmick like the wildcat, this generation of running quarterbacks are going to find themselves at physical risk of taking hits when they set off running, and that if they cannot move the ball by passing, their shelf-life is going to be very limited. One need only look at TimTebow.
Similarly of concern for both teams and any other
sides that have heavy run-first offenses, will be the effects of new
rules banning running backs from lowering their heads as they run at
defenders. Powerful running backs like Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch
will see their effectiveness reduced if the rules make them easier to
tackle.
Of the other NFC contenders, Atlanta have to show
that there is life after John Abraham's pass-rush and Michael
Turner's running. There has been a lot of criticism for the Falcons'
inability to put together a playoff run, but for a franchise that had
never had consecutive winning seasons before their arrival, five
straight trips to the playoffs under Mike Smith and Matt Ryan are not
to be sniffed at. Ryan has developed into a genuine threat as the
running game has deteriorated, but much like Peyton Manning a decade
ago, he has to prove he can be more than a master of the regular
season and start winning playoff games. Their southern rivals, the
Panthers and Buccaneers look capable of securing a playoff berth, but
lack the depth for anything more than that.
In the NFC East, you
can never write off the New York Giants, but they were mediocre last
year and probably need another season to rebuild their offense.
Dallas look like the front runners in the division, but the question
is whether the change to a 4-3 Tampa 2 defensive system under veteran
co-ordinator Monte Kiffin is going to work. It is a big gamble, the
team has been playing a 3-4 for years and has drafted personnel to
suit it. Offensively they have plenty of weapons and they are always
a talented team, but only one playoff win since 1995's Championship
is indicative of the Cowboys' repeated failures to win when it
matters. Tony Romo is a good quarterback, but carries huge weight of
expectation and is often criticised for their lack of success,
unfairly so. Nonetheless, the team has tended to fail when it
matters. With minimal playoff experience, it has become hard to see
them going on a run in the postseason.
For Washington, a
playoff challenge is realistic, but nothing beyond that. Their
defense needs to improve, and should improve with the return from
injury of pass-rusher Brian Orakpo, but even if Robert Griffin III is
fully fit, they are still probably a year or two away from being real
contenders.
In the North, Green Bay
are in much the same situation as New Orleans in the South. They
should be an offensive powerhouse as usual, but if they have not
fixed their defensive woes, they will not go beyond the first round
of the playoffs. It's not a coincidence that both teams have been
very consistent on offense for several years, but that the only time
each team won a title was the single year when they had a good
defense.
The other NFC North
teams will fancy themselves, but given the recent records of
Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago, and the strength of their division, a
trip to the postseason and a playoff win would be a huge achievement.
Anything more is unlikely for teams with little winning pedigree in
their current regimes.
In the AFC, Houston
have retained the core of their team, Brian Cushing returns from
injury to beef up their defense, and if Ed Reed, arrived from
Baltimore, has anything left, he could provide crucial playoff
experience. If Andre Johnson can stay fit and give Matt Schaub a real
receiving threat, then combined with their strong running game, the
Texans should win their division, and could finally have the playoff
run that has eluded them for so long. The Colts came a long way last
year, but overachieved and are probably a couple of years away from
being a serious threat, but a wild card is not out of the question.
The Patriots will
always be precise and well-coached, and with Tom Brady at
quarterback, anything is possible. In a weak AFC East, they should
still be favourites, but this otherwise looks like a transitional
year for them, with their well-documented problems this summer
leaving them with a distinct lack of receiving weapons other than
the injured Rob Gronkowski and the injury-prone Danny Amendola.
Expect them to run the ball more than ever this year, through their
stable of underrated running backs, but not to go anywhere in the
postseason. The Dolphins will fancy themselves to upset the Patriots
and a positive first year under head coach Joe Philbin sets them up
nicely, but they are a couple of years away from being a contender,
they lack depth and despite the addition of receiver Mike Wallace,
offensive weapons.
Elsewhere in the AFC,
Andy Reid's superb record with playoff qualification and an unusually
strong roster in what was a bad Kansas City team last year, makes it
very possible that the Chiefs will sneak a playoff spot this year
behind the Broncos, but nothing more than that. The remaining
contenders will come instead from the North. Cincinnati have built
surprisingly well over the past two years, for a franchise that is
known for being dysfunctional. Their challenge will be remaining
consistent, a quality that has often eluded them, and if they get to
the playoffs, securing a win, something that has been even more
elusive. They have a strong defence and some exciting offensive
weapons, especially AJ Green, but Andy Dalton needs to step up a
level and become a real leading quarterback if they are to proceed.
Finally, the Steelers
are theoretically still rebuilding, after shedding many veterans,
especially on their defense, over the past two years. But they seem
more settled this year, Todd Haley is in his second year as offensive
co-ordinator, they have some talented young receivers, and enough
veteran players still around that they are more of a threat than many
are giving them credit for. They could easily sneak past their rivals
in the north, and once into the playoffs, anything could happen.
Looking over the
contenders, it seems like there are less teams than usual in a
strong, championship-ready position. This does not make the NFL any
less open than in other years though. Genuine contenders like the
Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks have a habit of coming unstuck,
especially in the playoffs, and any one of the teams who could be
expected to sneak into the playoffs, but not do much else, could go
on a run and win it all, just like the Giants did in 2007 and 2011.
Prediction: The Broncos
will make the early running and tie up the number one seed, but will
run out of steam in the postseason and Peyton Manning's playoff
gremlins will return. The 49ers will find life harder going for Colin
Kaepernick without the element of surprise some offensive weapons,
whilst the Falcons will be the Broncos of the AFC. The Houston Texans
and Seattle Seahawks to contest the Super Bowl, meaning a new winner
for the Lombardi trophy.
