Rugby: Controversy overshadows the rugby as Lions and Wallabies face history

The British and Irish Lions have not been involved in a third test decider since their last tour of Australia 12 years ago. Tomorrow's match is a golden opportunity to restore the rugby credibility that only a series win can bring, and ensure that the concept of a combined touring team stays relevant for many more years. Yet you would not know it to listen to the British and Irish media's narrative of controversy and pessimism this week.

The second test was a disappointment for the tourists. Scrappy and mistake-ridden, but tense and gripping. Despite winning the first test, Warren Gatland made changes, acknowledging that it had been the narrowest of victories and there was much to improve on. But his changes were conservative, bringing in Lydiate and Bowe for their defensive abilities. That said, the selection of Ben Youngs, with his quicker pass, should have empowered Jonathan Sexton to create more opportunities for the backline. Instead, the Lions kicked ball away, played it close and tried to grind out a win. But you can't win a match by trying not to lose, the tourists could not get the distance they needed. Australian teams have a knack of staying in games (e.g. the 2003 world cup final) and sure enough, they played themselves into position for a winning score.

Both sides left the field facing key losses and a tense build up to Sydney, with the Lions losing Sam Warburton after a fantastic performance in the second test and the Australians worrying over the disciplinary proceedings against James Horwill. Then Gatland dropped his bombshell, dropping Brian O'Driscoll for the first time in his international career, and in doing so, removing his most creative player in favour of the more prosaic and inexperienced Jonathan Davies, a player who was earlier this year descirbed as “not a natural passer” by one of his own international coaches.

Richie Benaud always says that his approach to captaincy was doing the thing his opponent least wanted him to do. The Wallabies respect and fear O'Driscoll. The Irishman has had a quiet series, but has done a lot of work in defence, and there was every reason to believe that with Jamie Roberts restored alongside him, he would be back on form. The Lions need to play more rugby and try to win the game and for this reason, O'Driscoll should have played. He would have made a fine captain too, one that his opponents would respect, and the side now look short of leaders. The reversion to a power game is worrying because throughout the professional era, teams have sought to out-muscle the Wallabies, and have consistently failed because they have been suckered into a blinkered approach. The Welsh team that forms the heart of this Lions side lost 3-0 to the Wallabies a year ago, and has lost its last eight games against them.

Nonetheless, Gatland is entitled to make this decision and the overreaction has been unprecedented. There is a good rugby case for O'Driscoll, but there is a rugby argument against picking him too. Davies has had a good tour and though he has been quiet in the tests, he has not been bad. Gatland wants to revert to the game that has won him a grand slam and a Six Nations title in the last two seasons. It may not be to everyone's taste, but this is a coach who has won throughout his career, is vastly experienced in international rugby, and who has a fantastic track record of winning big games. He makes decisions on rugby grounds, and to accuse him of betraying the Lions ethos or bias towards Wales is a gross misunderstanding. Gatland knows his reputation will be tied to Saturday's result for years, he is not going to betray his own principles for bias or to prove some sort of point. He has taken a huge gamble, one which many, with good cause, believe to be wrong, but he has taken it because he believes that it is right.

Meanwhile, in George Smith, the Australians have a modern great returning from premature exile and he will bring muscle and know-how that can frustrate the tourists. In picking Sean O'Brien, the Lions have gone for an openside who is not a pure ball winner in the Warburton or Tipuric mould, and Smith will be relishing challenging the Irishman with Roman Poite, a northern hemisphere referee, allowing more of a contest on the floor, and with O'Driscoll, effectively a fourth backrower, absent.

The clues point towards another close encounter, another tense and messy match, like the one we had in Melbourne, rather than the open and exhilarating first test. Regardless, it will be nothing less than engrossing, and after an exhausting week of controversy, 80 minutes of unmissable rugby is what both sets of fans need.

Australia vs British & Irish Lions: second test preview

The British and Irish Lions find themselves on the brink of a rare series victory, their first since 1997. Here is how the second test shapes up:

Scrum

The scrum was supposed to be the Lions' strength in the first test. Australia have a better front row than in the past, but lack quality reserves, whereas the Lions' strong bench was supposed to dominate the second half. Instead, after a good first half, the replacements came on and struggled, giving away the penalty that nearly gifted the Wallabies the win. It was a dubious decision from referee Chris Pollock, but the Lions should never have given him the option. They are without the impressive Alex Corbisiero, opening the door for Mako Vunipola, whose scrummaging has been a concern. The Lions need to be wary of referee Craig Joubert, known for being strict, and cannot afford to be worrying about their own players as well. If the young loosehead struggles, expect to see Scotland's robust Ryan Grant on the field early in the second half. Otherwise, they should not make wholesale changes to the rest of the front row.

Line out

The Lions' line out had been poor throughout the tour, but in Brisbane it came good, though they got away with a couple of mistimed efforts. They cannot assume that the Wallabies will fail to punish such errors in Melbourne though. By replacing Tom Croft with Dan Lydiate, Warren Gatland has sacrificed a dangerous jumper for a little more defensive edge whether this gamble pays off may decide the series. Paul O'Connell's absence is a blow, but Geoff Parling has made a name for himself on this tour with his performances and leadership.

Selection

Tommy Bowe was in line for the first test until his hand injury, so replacing Alex Cuthbert is consistent, but harsh on Cuthbert, who scored a memorable try and played well. Ian McGeechan noted that Bowe is an intelligent defender as well as a dangerous runner, and this is probably the rationale. Gatland wants to deny the Australians the space they found in the first test, when the Lions defended surprisingly poorly.

Ben Youngs' call-up reflects a poor test from Mike Phillips, who fell into a well-placed trap from the Wallabies. They tempted Phillips to run into gaps on the fringes, only to close them with Ben Mowen, trapping Phillips in possession. Youngs likes to snipe, but focuses more on quick service. This puts the onus on Jonny Sexton to be the sole playmaker.

The most interesting selection is Lydiate over Croft, who played well in Brisbane. The Welshman is known for his tackling and all signs point to a gameplan based on shutting down the channels around the fringes. The Australians march to Will Genia's tune and if Lydiate can cut down his space and time, it will go a long way to winning the battle. Croft can come on in the second half, when things are opening up, to use his pace and skill in the loose. The danger is that this is a conservative selection, based on stopping the opposition, rather than scoring points.

James O'Connor continues at fly-half for Australia, where he looked uncomfortable in Brisbane. O'Connor is a good winger or full-back, and might be a great centre, but struggles with game management, especially with the pressure of goal kicking (Christian Lealiifano would have kicked in the first test if still on the field). Deans could have moved Kurtley Beale into fly-half and pushed O'Connor back to full-back or to centre. But he has doubled down on his selection from Brisbane, while the mercurial Quade Cooper sits on the sidelines. He may be difficult to deal with and capable of maddening errors, but he is a match winner, and the failure to manage him reflects badly on Deans. One wonders whether there should have been a spot for Mike Harris, who kicked the Wallabies to test wins last year, and who could play at 10, 12 or 15.

Breakdown

Chris Pollock made a lot of enemies in the northern hemisphere, giving very little leeway to attack the breakdown. However, the Lions struggled with one of rugby's oldest realities: adapt to the referee. Instead they looked confused and frustrated. Their leadership have spent all week praising Craig Joubert and he will probably be more accommodating than Pollock, but not by much. He is known for his strict approach and is still unlikely to give them the type of game they want. Brian O'Driscoll and Sam Warburton must lead the way in responding accordingly.

Despite the uncertainty and discontent within and without the camp, Australia nearly won the first test. It is typical of an Australian side to never be far from victory. They are unlikely to be as unlucky as they were a week ago and should be more settled. In both previous tours of Australia, the winner of the first test lost the series. Whilst the British and Irish Lions are rightly favourites to secure a series win in Melbourne, you write the Wallabies off at your peril.