NFL: It begins again

The least predictable league in the sporting world returned on Thursday night, as the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos kicked off the new NFL season. Eight months after the Ravens stunned the home favourite Broncos with a double overtime victory in the divisional round of the playoffs, the Denver secured their revenge against a very different Baltimore team to the one that lifted the Lombardi Trophy in February.

Gone are their talismen Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, along with a host of other names, and although the Ravens have rebuilt their defense with the likes of former Bronco Elvis Dumervil, them seemed slow and off the pace in Denver. The y remain a threat, but repeating their title is likely to be a bridge too far. The loss of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta leaves the offense over-reliant on Ray Rice on the ground and Torrey Smith through the air, and probably asks too much of Joe Flacco, despite his maturity in last year's playoff run. The demands of being reigning champions, having the shortest offseason, seeing your talent plucked by other teams and living with a target on your back, make repeating hard, and although they stand a good chance in their division, a playoff run seems beyond them on Thursday's showing.

Where then, are the contenders? The NFC is again the stronger of the conferences. The San Francisco 49ers look well-equipped to overcome the curse of the Super Bowl losers, despite their receiving corps suffering serious injuries to Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham. Colin Kaepernick will have had his first full preseason as a starter and should continue to develop, whilst the defense and running game should pick up where they left off. Division rival Seattle Seahawks are in a similar situation. They retained their talent from a year ago, but will be without their blockbuster trade signing from Minnesota, wide receiver Percy Harvin, for much of the season, due to injury.

The danger for both teams is that there is no longer any element of surprise, opponents will be expecting Kaepernick and Russell Wilson's running threat. There are unlikely to be many repeats of the 49ers' playoff win over Green Bay when the Packers were woefully unable to cope with the read-option plays from the quarterback position. Both men will need to throw more accurately and show development in their game management skills. The ability of defences to respond to the read-option after it was successfully adopted by several teams last year, will play a critical role in shaping the year's results.

There are echoes of wildcat formation that became fashionable in 2008 and 2009 and was very effective at first when only the Miami Dolphins used it, but soon faded once it was adopted widely and the surprise element was gone. There is no substitute for good quarterbacking, and though the read-option may not be a gimmick like the wildcat, this generation of running quarterbacks are going to find themselves at physical risk of taking hits when they set off running, and that if they cannot move the ball by passing, their shelf-life is going to be very limited. One need only look at TimTebow.

Similarly of concern for both teams and any other sides that have heavy run-first offenses, will be the effects of new rules banning running backs from lowering their heads as they run at defenders. Powerful running backs like Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch will see their effectiveness reduced if the rules make them easier to tackle.

Of the other NFC contenders, Atlanta have to show that there is life after John Abraham's pass-rush and Michael Turner's running. There has been a lot of criticism for the Falcons' inability to put together a playoff run, but for a franchise that had never had consecutive winning seasons before their arrival, five straight trips to the playoffs under Mike Smith and Matt Ryan are not to be sniffed at. Ryan has developed into a genuine threat as the running game has deteriorated, but much like Peyton Manning a decade ago, he has to prove he can be more than a master of the regular season and start winning playoff games. Their southern rivals, the Panthers and Buccaneers look capable of securing a playoff berth, but lack the depth for anything more than that.

In the NFC East, you can never write off the New York Giants, but they were mediocre last year and probably need another season to rebuild their offense. Dallas look like the front runners in the division, but the question is whether the change to a 4-3 Tampa 2 defensive system under veteran co-ordinator Monte Kiffin is going to work. It is a big gamble, the team has been playing a 3-4 for years and has drafted personnel to suit it. Offensively they have plenty of weapons and they are always a talented team, but only one playoff win since 1995's Championship is indicative of the Cowboys' repeated failures to win when it matters. Tony Romo is a good quarterback, but carries huge weight of expectation and is often criticised for their lack of success, unfairly so. Nonetheless, the team has tended to fail when it matters. With minimal playoff experience, it has become hard to see them going on a run in the postseason.

For Washington, a playoff challenge is realistic, but nothing beyond that. Their defense needs to improve, and should improve with the return from injury of pass-rusher Brian Orakpo, but even if Robert Griffin III is fully fit, they are still probably a year or two away from being real contenders.

In the North, Green Bay are in much the same situation as New Orleans in the South. They should be an offensive powerhouse as usual, but if they have not fixed their defensive woes, they will not go beyond the first round of the playoffs. It's not a coincidence that both teams have been very consistent on offense for several years, but that the only time each team won a title was the single year when they had a good defense.

The other NFC North teams will fancy themselves, but given the recent records of Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago, and the strength of their division, a trip to the postseason and a playoff win would be a huge achievement. Anything more is unlikely for teams with little winning pedigree in their current regimes.

In the AFC, Houston have retained the core of their team, Brian Cushing returns from injury to beef up their defense, and if Ed Reed, arrived from Baltimore, has anything left, he could provide crucial playoff experience. If Andre Johnson can stay fit and give Matt Schaub a real receiving threat, then combined with their strong running game, the Texans should win their division, and could finally have the playoff run that has eluded them for so long. The Colts came a long way last year, but overachieved and are probably a couple of years away from being a serious threat, but a wild card is not out of the question.

The Patriots will always be precise and well-coached, and with Tom Brady at quarterback, anything is possible. In a weak AFC East, they should still be favourites, but this otherwise looks like a transitional year for them, with their well-documented problems this summer leaving them with a distinct lack of receiving weapons other than the injured Rob Gronkowski and the injury-prone Danny Amendola. Expect them to run the ball more than ever this year, through their stable of underrated running backs, but not to go anywhere in the postseason. The Dolphins will fancy themselves to upset the Patriots and a positive first year under head coach Joe Philbin sets them up nicely, but they are a couple of years away from being a contender, they lack depth and despite the addition of receiver Mike Wallace, offensive weapons.

Elsewhere in the AFC, Andy Reid's superb record with playoff qualification and an unusually strong roster in what was a bad Kansas City team last year, makes it very possible that the Chiefs will sneak a playoff spot this year behind the Broncos, but nothing more than that. The remaining contenders will come instead from the North. Cincinnati have built surprisingly well over the past two years, for a franchise that is known for being dysfunctional. Their challenge will be remaining consistent, a quality that has often eluded them, and if they get to the playoffs, securing a win, something that has been even more elusive. They have a strong defence and some exciting offensive weapons, especially AJ Green, but Andy Dalton needs to step up a level and become a real leading quarterback if they are to proceed.

Finally, the Steelers are theoretically still rebuilding, after shedding many veterans, especially on their defense, over the past two years. But they seem more settled this year, Todd Haley is in his second year as offensive co-ordinator, they have some talented young receivers, and enough veteran players still around that they are more of a threat than many are giving them credit for. They could easily sneak past their rivals in the north, and once into the playoffs, anything could happen.

Looking over the contenders, it seems like there are less teams than usual in a strong, championship-ready position. This does not make the NFL any less open than in other years though. Genuine contenders like the Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks have a habit of coming unstuck, especially in the playoffs, and any one of the teams who could be expected to sneak into the playoffs, but not do much else, could go on a run and win it all, just like the Giants did in 2007 and 2011.

Prediction: The Broncos will make the early running and tie up the number one seed, but will run out of steam in the postseason and Peyton Manning's playoff gremlins will return. The 49ers will find life harder going for Colin Kaepernick without the element of surprise some offensive weapons, whilst the Falcons will be the Broncos of the AFC. The Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks to contest the Super Bowl, meaning a new winner for the Lombardi trophy.

Rugby: Controversy overshadows the rugby as Lions and Wallabies face history

The British and Irish Lions have not been involved in a third test decider since their last tour of Australia 12 years ago. Tomorrow's match is a golden opportunity to restore the rugby credibility that only a series win can bring, and ensure that the concept of a combined touring team stays relevant for many more years. Yet you would not know it to listen to the British and Irish media's narrative of controversy and pessimism this week.

The second test was a disappointment for the tourists. Scrappy and mistake-ridden, but tense and gripping. Despite winning the first test, Warren Gatland made changes, acknowledging that it had been the narrowest of victories and there was much to improve on. But his changes were conservative, bringing in Lydiate and Bowe for their defensive abilities. That said, the selection of Ben Youngs, with his quicker pass, should have empowered Jonathan Sexton to create more opportunities for the backline. Instead, the Lions kicked ball away, played it close and tried to grind out a win. But you can't win a match by trying not to lose, the tourists could not get the distance they needed. Australian teams have a knack of staying in games (e.g. the 2003 world cup final) and sure enough, they played themselves into position for a winning score.

Both sides left the field facing key losses and a tense build up to Sydney, with the Lions losing Sam Warburton after a fantastic performance in the second test and the Australians worrying over the disciplinary proceedings against James Horwill. Then Gatland dropped his bombshell, dropping Brian O'Driscoll for the first time in his international career, and in doing so, removing his most creative player in favour of the more prosaic and inexperienced Jonathan Davies, a player who was earlier this year descirbed as “not a natural passer” by one of his own international coaches.

Richie Benaud always says that his approach to captaincy was doing the thing his opponent least wanted him to do. The Wallabies respect and fear O'Driscoll. The Irishman has had a quiet series, but has done a lot of work in defence, and there was every reason to believe that with Jamie Roberts restored alongside him, he would be back on form. The Lions need to play more rugby and try to win the game and for this reason, O'Driscoll should have played. He would have made a fine captain too, one that his opponents would respect, and the side now look short of leaders. The reversion to a power game is worrying because throughout the professional era, teams have sought to out-muscle the Wallabies, and have consistently failed because they have been suckered into a blinkered approach. The Welsh team that forms the heart of this Lions side lost 3-0 to the Wallabies a year ago, and has lost its last eight games against them.

Nonetheless, Gatland is entitled to make this decision and the overreaction has been unprecedented. There is a good rugby case for O'Driscoll, but there is a rugby argument against picking him too. Davies has had a good tour and though he has been quiet in the tests, he has not been bad. Gatland wants to revert to the game that has won him a grand slam and a Six Nations title in the last two seasons. It may not be to everyone's taste, but this is a coach who has won throughout his career, is vastly experienced in international rugby, and who has a fantastic track record of winning big games. He makes decisions on rugby grounds, and to accuse him of betraying the Lions ethos or bias towards Wales is a gross misunderstanding. Gatland knows his reputation will be tied to Saturday's result for years, he is not going to betray his own principles for bias or to prove some sort of point. He has taken a huge gamble, one which many, with good cause, believe to be wrong, but he has taken it because he believes that it is right.

Meanwhile, in George Smith, the Australians have a modern great returning from premature exile and he will bring muscle and know-how that can frustrate the tourists. In picking Sean O'Brien, the Lions have gone for an openside who is not a pure ball winner in the Warburton or Tipuric mould, and Smith will be relishing challenging the Irishman with Roman Poite, a northern hemisphere referee, allowing more of a contest on the floor, and with O'Driscoll, effectively a fourth backrower, absent.

The clues point towards another close encounter, another tense and messy match, like the one we had in Melbourne, rather than the open and exhilarating first test. Regardless, it will be nothing less than engrossing, and after an exhausting week of controversy, 80 minutes of unmissable rugby is what both sets of fans need.

Australia vs British & Irish Lions: second test preview

The British and Irish Lions find themselves on the brink of a rare series victory, their first since 1997. Here is how the second test shapes up:

Scrum

The scrum was supposed to be the Lions' strength in the first test. Australia have a better front row than in the past, but lack quality reserves, whereas the Lions' strong bench was supposed to dominate the second half. Instead, after a good first half, the replacements came on and struggled, giving away the penalty that nearly gifted the Wallabies the win. It was a dubious decision from referee Chris Pollock, but the Lions should never have given him the option. They are without the impressive Alex Corbisiero, opening the door for Mako Vunipola, whose scrummaging has been a concern. The Lions need to be wary of referee Craig Joubert, known for being strict, and cannot afford to be worrying about their own players as well. If the young loosehead struggles, expect to see Scotland's robust Ryan Grant on the field early in the second half. Otherwise, they should not make wholesale changes to the rest of the front row.

Line out

The Lions' line out had been poor throughout the tour, but in Brisbane it came good, though they got away with a couple of mistimed efforts. They cannot assume that the Wallabies will fail to punish such errors in Melbourne though. By replacing Tom Croft with Dan Lydiate, Warren Gatland has sacrificed a dangerous jumper for a little more defensive edge whether this gamble pays off may decide the series. Paul O'Connell's absence is a blow, but Geoff Parling has made a name for himself on this tour with his performances and leadership.

Selection

Tommy Bowe was in line for the first test until his hand injury, so replacing Alex Cuthbert is consistent, but harsh on Cuthbert, who scored a memorable try and played well. Ian McGeechan noted that Bowe is an intelligent defender as well as a dangerous runner, and this is probably the rationale. Gatland wants to deny the Australians the space they found in the first test, when the Lions defended surprisingly poorly.

Ben Youngs' call-up reflects a poor test from Mike Phillips, who fell into a well-placed trap from the Wallabies. They tempted Phillips to run into gaps on the fringes, only to close them with Ben Mowen, trapping Phillips in possession. Youngs likes to snipe, but focuses more on quick service. This puts the onus on Jonny Sexton to be the sole playmaker.

The most interesting selection is Lydiate over Croft, who played well in Brisbane. The Welshman is known for his tackling and all signs point to a gameplan based on shutting down the channels around the fringes. The Australians march to Will Genia's tune and if Lydiate can cut down his space and time, it will go a long way to winning the battle. Croft can come on in the second half, when things are opening up, to use his pace and skill in the loose. The danger is that this is a conservative selection, based on stopping the opposition, rather than scoring points.

James O'Connor continues at fly-half for Australia, where he looked uncomfortable in Brisbane. O'Connor is a good winger or full-back, and might be a great centre, but struggles with game management, especially with the pressure of goal kicking (Christian Lealiifano would have kicked in the first test if still on the field). Deans could have moved Kurtley Beale into fly-half and pushed O'Connor back to full-back or to centre. But he has doubled down on his selection from Brisbane, while the mercurial Quade Cooper sits on the sidelines. He may be difficult to deal with and capable of maddening errors, but he is a match winner, and the failure to manage him reflects badly on Deans. One wonders whether there should have been a spot for Mike Harris, who kicked the Wallabies to test wins last year, and who could play at 10, 12 or 15.

Breakdown

Chris Pollock made a lot of enemies in the northern hemisphere, giving very little leeway to attack the breakdown. However, the Lions struggled with one of rugby's oldest realities: adapt to the referee. Instead they looked confused and frustrated. Their leadership have spent all week praising Craig Joubert and he will probably be more accommodating than Pollock, but not by much. He is known for his strict approach and is still unlikely to give them the type of game they want. Brian O'Driscoll and Sam Warburton must lead the way in responding accordingly.

Despite the uncertainty and discontent within and without the camp, Australia nearly won the first test. It is typical of an Australian side to never be far from victory. They are unlikely to be as unlucky as they were a week ago and should be more settled. In both previous tours of Australia, the winner of the first test lost the series. Whilst the British and Irish Lions are rightly favourites to secure a series win in Melbourne, you write the Wallabies off at your peril.

Football: A season of significance

This week's appointment of Jose Mourinho as manager of Chelsea concludes the last outstanding piece of business from a 2012/13 season which may not have ended in as dramatic a fashion as its 2011/12 predecessor, but may turn out to be one of the most significant in the Premier League Era. The effects of a season that saw three of the top four clubs change manager and two first time winners for the major cups will only be apparent in the long run, but for the first time in a long time, there will be a different feel to the top flight in 2013/14.

With Mourinho returning to Chelsea, Manchester City firing Roberto Mancini and the retirement of Alex Ferguson at Manchester United, Arsène Wenger is the only top four manager left standing, an unprecedented turnover in the Premiership era, with four clubs able to qualify for the Champions League. It shows that qualification is no longer enough for these teams' owners. They want titles and European Cups and will not persevere with managers who cannot deliver.

Nonetheless, City should be mindful of Chelsea's example, sacking Carlo Ancelotti only a year after winning the league, leading to a period of managerial instability throughout which they have failed to challenge for the title. Then again, they have won the Champions and Europa Leagues in that time, so Roman Abramovich would probably argue that his move worked. United meanwhile, face the question that follows great coaches in every sport: can they succeed without Ferguson, or is this the beginning of the end of their dominance?

Arsenal's slow decline as a title challenger has led to rumblings of discontent, but Wenger's side has qualified for the Champions League for 16 consecutive seasons while remaining financially secure. With DavidMoyes and Manuel Pellegrini, two managers without a major trophy between them (though Pellegrini has won titles in Ecuador and Argentina), replacing Ferguson and Mancini, Wenger's experience is more valuable now than at any time in the eight years since their last trophy. It is a stretch to say that Arsenal can profit from this upheaval by winning the league, but it may open the door for their best season for some time.

Given the strength of the squad, his track record and experience, Mourinho has a great opportunity to return the title to Stanford Bridge. But he inherits a team that is much changed since his 2007 departure and he and his squad will need to adapt quickly if they are to succeed.

For Tottenham Hotspur, history repeated itself, the third time in three years and the fifth in eight that they have narrowly missed out on the Champions League. But even here, it was an unusual season; Spurs finished with their highest points total in 33 years, 72 points would have qualified them for a fourth placed finish in all bar two of the Premier League's 20 seasons.

Missing out again is frustrating for the team and the fans and may set the club back if they can't keep their players or recruit successfully, but a performance like that in Andre Villas Boas' first season offers encouragement. The key for Villas Boas, as for many of his predecessors, is consistency against weaker opponents after the hard work has been done by beating the stronger ones. The failure to beat Wigan, six days after a thrilling victory over Manchester City kept the race for fourth alive, was eventually what cost his team.

In the cups, the abnormality continued. Wigan's stunning win over City was dramatic, perhaps the biggest upset since Wimbledon's defeat of Liverpool in 1988, but the shine was taken off it by their unique place in history as the only cup winners to be relegated in the same season. It should have been the club's greatest moment, and maybe it still is, but if they cannot bounce back promptly, the memory will remain permanently tinged with sadness.

Swansea's victory in the league cup was another triumph for a first time major trophy winner and rewarded the club's commitment to good football and smart business. The beaten finalists, Bradford, were themselves a great story, coming from League 2. It was a remarkably good year all-round for Welsh football, with Cardiff joining Swansea in the top flight and Newport County promoted to the Football League. With German teams contesting the Champions League final, there was a fresh and unfamiliar look to all of the season's major events.

Whether this is the beginning of an era of greater competition and change, or whether it is simply a shift in generations remains to be seen. The Premiership race may not have been as dramatic as a year ago, but 2012/13 should be marked as a noteworthy season whose effects will be with us for a long time.

Baseball: Triple play Yankees

A triple play is a rare and crazy sight in baseball, and the New York Yankees pulled one off against the Baltimore Orioles a couple of nights ago (courtesy of Deadspin).

Football: The Kit Man and Mourinho

Jose Mourinho may not be the most popular man in football, but the man with the giant ego does turn out to have a softer side, as revealed in this remarkable story from Sports Illustrated about the volunteer kit man from Los Angeles who Mourinho took on the trip of a lifetime.

"Abel Rodríguez is a 41-year-old Mexican-American who waxes floors in Los Angeles for Metro Transportation. Real Madrid's José Mourinho is one of the world's most famous managers...

How did Rodríguez become Mourinho's American good luck charm and end up meeting Sir Alex Ferguson, Cristiano Ronaldo, Diego Maradona, Mesut Özil, Kaká and Javier (Chicharito) Hernández?"

It's a great read, in a time when the gulf between football's elite and their fans has never been greater, it is the sort of story that makes one realise that they can engage with their public in an endearing and human way in the right circumstances.

Rugby: After Cardiff Wales and England can look at the positives

Wales' Six Nations triumph restored clarity to the northern hemisphere after confusing season. The Welsh have re-established themselves Europe's best team, as they were a year ago, England are much improved but not contenders yet, and the rest are in various states of rebuilding. Yet in many quarters the result has been reported as a disaster for the English, a grand slam choke akin to 1999, 2000 and 2001, yet this does a disservice to both teams.

For the Welsh, reducing the result to an English failure undersells the team that won a grand slam a year ago and was the best in this year's tournament. A disastrous first half in the opening game against Ireland was all that kept them from a repeat. From half-time in that match onwards, they were the best side, scoring the most tries and points, and conceding the least. However, due to their terrible summer and autumn series, the media narrative was that Rob Howley's tenure as interim head coach was failing and the team had lost its way.

This analysis was grounded in truth. The summer 3-0 defeat by middling Australia side, who seemed ripe for defeat on home soil, was a huge disappointment. The resulting confidence blow cast a shadow over the autumn, when the side looked listless and uninspired, most notably in the defeat by Samoa.

They had not become a bad team overnight though, once the confidence returned in the second half against Ireland, they were back. But they had been written off by the this point, and with England unbeaten through four games, few pundits noticed that the Welsh were clearly the better team, because that did not fit the narrative of a team in crisis and of England marching to a grand slam.

For England, painting it as a disaster does not accurately reflect their position. They were never the grand slam team they were hyped up to be, but in a little over a year they have made huge strides. Disappointment that they failed to meet unrealistically high expectations should not be laid at the feet of the team.

That is not to say that there are not problems, but they can be ironed out. Stuart Lancaster and Andy Farrell's comments after the game were humble and reflected a staff that knows what needs to be done, although this was later undermined by the public criticism of referee Steve Walsh. Asking the IRB about Walsh's decision-making is legitimate, but should be done behind closed doors. The scrum was a serious problem for England in the game, selecting Joe Marler ahead of the stronger scrummager Mako Vunipola was a mistake and Wales' focus on scrummaging instead of the refereeing paid dividends. Adam Jones' strong performance has probably won him the Lions' tighthead spot, especially after Dan Cole's unusually poor showing.

England's other problems were easily identified. Their lack of a pure ball-winning openside was one, as Justin Tipuric and Sam Warburton dominated the breakdown. Chris Robshaw has been a revelation as an international player and a captain, but is not a conventional openside in that sense. If he is going to be England's number seven, he needs support from the rest of the back row, the balance of which is something that will need further scrutiny.

Lancaster and his staff also need to create a greater threat in the backline, one try in four games is not enough, and though none of the starting backs are bad players, they lack cutting edge. Manu Tuilagi is a wrecking ball, capable of great performances, such as against New Zealand last year, but needs to use this threat to make space for his team mates and pass the ball to those outside him. Improving the quality of his handling skills would be a start. Further wide, the damage done by Alex Cuthbert for Wales highlighted the lack of quality wingers in white. Chris Ashton has not played well for England in 18 months and should be dropped until he finds some consistent form and confidence, he does not have enough of an all-round game to stay in the side when not scoring tries. Mike Brown has impressed as a rugby player, and was unlucky to lose his full-back spot to the rapidly maturing Alex Goode, but now that he has, he is out of position on the wing. There is an exciting crop of athletic wingers currently in the Premiership, it would be good to see Christian Wade, Tom Varndell, Charlie Sharples and Jonny May given opportunities in Argentina.

England should not be tricked by the media reaction into changing course. An inexperienced side has come a long way since Lancaster took over, and if the right lessons are learned and applied, there will be many more opportunities. For Wales, the win marked the end of a topsy-turvy twelve months and a return to their rightful place as kings of the north. This is a familiar cycle for them though, each recent grand slam, 2005, 2008, 2012, has been followed by disappointments and unfulfilled expectations. When they resume in the autumn, their challenge will be to take the next step and start challenging the southern hemisphere giants on a regular basis.