The British and Irish
Lions find themselves on the brink of a rare series victory, their
first since 1997. Here is how the second test shapes up:
Scrum
The scrum was supposed
to be the Lions' strength in the first test. Australia have a better
front row than in the past, but lack quality reserves, whereas the
Lions' strong bench was supposed to dominate the second half.
Instead, after a good first half, the replacements came on and
struggled, giving away the penalty that nearly gifted the Wallabies
the win. It was a dubious decision from referee Chris Pollock, but
the Lions should never have given him the option. They are without
the impressive Alex Corbisiero, opening the door for Mako Vunipola,
whose scrummaging has been a concern. The Lions need to be wary of
referee Craig Joubert, known for being strict, and cannot afford to
be worrying about their own players as well. If the young loosehead
struggles, expect to see Scotland's robust Ryan Grant on the field
early in the second half. Otherwise, they should not make wholesale
changes to the rest of the front row.
Line out
The Lions' line out had
been poor throughout the tour, but in Brisbane it came good, though
they got away with a couple of mistimed efforts. They cannot assume
that the Wallabies will fail to punish such errors in Melbourne
though. By replacing Tom Croft with Dan Lydiate, Warren Gatland has
sacrificed a dangerous jumper for a little more defensive edge
whether this gamble pays off may decide the series. Paul O'Connell's
absence is a blow, but Geoff Parling has made a name for himself on
this tour with his performances and leadership.
Selection
Tommy Bowe was in line
for the first test until his hand injury, so replacing Alex Cuthbert
is consistent, but harsh on Cuthbert, who scored a memorable try and
played well. Ian McGeechan noted that Bowe is an intelligent defender
as well as a dangerous runner, and this is probably the rationale.
Gatland wants to deny the Australians the space they found in the
first test, when the Lions defended surprisingly poorly.
Ben Youngs' call-up
reflects a poor test from Mike Phillips, who fell into a well-placed
trap from the Wallabies. They tempted Phillips to run into gaps on
the fringes, only to close them with Ben Mowen, trapping Phillips in
possession. Youngs likes to snipe, but focuses more on quick service.
This puts the onus on Jonny Sexton to be the sole playmaker.
The most interesting
selection is Lydiate over Croft, who played well in Brisbane. The
Welshman is known for his tackling and all signs point to a gameplan
based on shutting down the channels around the fringes. The
Australians march to Will Genia's tune and if Lydiate can cut down
his space and time, it will go a long way to winning the battle.
Croft can come on in the second half, when things are opening up, to
use his pace and skill in the loose. The danger is that this is a
conservative selection, based on stopping the opposition, rather than
scoring points.
James O'Connor
continues at fly-half for Australia, where he looked uncomfortable in
Brisbane. O'Connor is a good winger or full-back, and might be a
great centre, but struggles with game management, especially with the
pressure of goal kicking (Christian Lealiifano would have kicked in
the first test if still on the field). Deans could have moved Kurtley
Beale into fly-half and pushed O'Connor back to full-back or to
centre. But he has doubled down on his selection from Brisbane, while
the mercurial Quade Cooper sits on the sidelines. He may be difficult
to deal with and capable of maddening errors, but he is a match
winner, and the failure to manage him reflects badly on Deans. One
wonders whether there should have been a spot for Mike Harris, who
kicked the Wallabies to test wins last year, and who could play at
10, 12 or 15.
Breakdown
Chris Pollock made a
lot of enemies in the northern hemisphere, giving very little leeway
to attack the breakdown. However, the Lions struggled with one of
rugby's oldest realities: adapt to the referee. Instead they looked
confused and frustrated. Their leadership have spent all week
praising Craig Joubert and he will probably be more accommodating
than Pollock, but not by much. He is known for his strict approach
and is still unlikely to give them the type of game they want. Brian
O'Driscoll and Sam Warburton must lead the way in responding
accordingly.
Despite the uncertainty
and discontent within and without the camp, Australia nearly won the
first test. It is typical of an Australian side to never be far from
victory. They are unlikely to be as unlucky as they were a week ago
and should be more settled. In both previous tours of Australia, the
winner of the first test lost the series. Whilst the British and
Irish Lions are rightly favourites to secure a series win in
Melbourne, you write the Wallabies off at your peril.
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