With Super Bowl XLIV only hours away, everyone knows the game plan for both the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints will focus on their expansive passing offenses. Assuming the two cancel each other out, here’s a look at some other factors that might separate the teams. Whilst the Colts are rightly considered to be favourites due to the assured way they have negotiated the entire season (even their defeats were almost part of the plan), and their experience, it promises to be an evenly-matched encounter.
Indianapolis Colts:
Indy have the lowest ranked running game in the league. Not because they are incapable of running, but because they choose not to, preferring to keep the ball in the hands of Peyton Manning. Against the Saints, establishing some semblance of a running game would force the New Orleans defense not to focus on pass coverage. However, the Colts are unlikely to use more than the odd burst from Joseph Addai to keep the defense honest.
Addai could be a difference-maker for the Colts
While the Saints’ Garrett Hartley showed great poise to kick the game-winning field goal in the NFC Championship game, as a second year player, he is still an unknown quantity. The Colts meanwhile have Matt Stover, a 42 year-old with 20 years of NFL experience and a Super Bowl ring. If it comes down to a late kick to win it, you would favour Stover over Hartley, although should the latter repeat his trick from the last game, he will get a reputation of his own.
Will the officials allow the Saints to hit Peyton Manning like they hit Brett Favre in the NFC Championship game? They were lucky not to be flagged in the late stages against the Vikings, and had those calls gone the other way, they might have lost. Defensive Co-ordinator Gregg Willams has made it clear that he will pursue the same tactics, but after two weeks of media scrutiny, it is unlikely that the officials will let them get away with it in the biggest game of the year, against the most high-profile quarterback in the game. Even if they are allowed to get to him, Manning rarely gets shaken, and indeed often chooses to duck out of the big hits, in favour of living to fight another day.
Manning is unlikely to punished as Brett Favre was two weeks ago
Big game experience. Only one Saints starter has been to a Super Bowl before, and that appearance by Darren Sharper was a defeat 12 years ago. Meanwhile 19 members of the Colts’ roster were present at Super Bowl XLI, including many of their starters. The Saints froze up at times in the NFC Championship game, even Drew Brees struggled to get going in the second half, and there is a chance that they will be overawed by the occasion.
New Orleans Saints:
It is widely held that the way to beat Peyton Manning is not to blitz him, since his release is so quick that he rarely gets sacked or hurried, but to confuse him. That is not to say that he is easily confused, there is no smarter quarterback in the league, but much like bodyline bowling made Don Bradman merely a very good cricketer instead of a legendary one, it is the only way to cause his production to drop to more manageable standards. Manning adjusts faster than any quarterback in the league, so it is critical that if the Saints manage to confuse him, they capitalise and put points on the board. Manning will soon adjust, and the chance will be lost.
Because of his productivity against the blitz, and the fact that the strength of the Saints’ defense lies in their secondary, what pressure they do get on Manning must come from their defensive line only. They cannot afford to bring extra men, for fear of exposing their defensive backs and compromising their best defensive weapon.
That secondary has made big plays all season, and led the league in interceptions returned for touchdowns. No-one is more important here than the veteran Darren Sharper. If Sharper can come up with a big play against Manning, it may turn the game and get under his skin. For all his success, Manning does not have the record in the postseason that he should have. If Sharper can cause him uncertainty, it might give his side an opportunity.
Dwight Freeney’s ankle has, for the last week, been scrutinised like Beckham’s metatarsal in 2002. If the Colts’ premier pass-rusher cannot play, or can only in a limited capacity, it means less need to provide extra blockers, giving Drew Brees more targets and more time to throw.
Freeney's ankle has been subject to constant speculation this week
It would help the Saints to establish the run early. Not only will it set up the passing game, but if Reggie Bush in particular, can run with real power, as he did in the divisional playoff against Arizona, there is a chance of wearing the lightweight but speedy Colts defense down and keeping Manning off the field. Neither side is known for its running game, but the Saints have more ability than Indianapolis, and need to capitalise.
Bush could be the deciding factor. The Colts are unspectacular on special teams, and kick and punt coverage has never been a strength. This is one area where New Orleans have an advantage. If Bush can produce one or two big punt returns, it could make the difference. If he can return one for a touchdown, it might just win the Super Bowl.
A remarkable part of Indianapolis’ success has been the ease with which their rookie cornerbacks have slotted into their team this season, but they are still rookies nonetheless, and even the relatively unproductive Jets passing game burned them a couple of times in the AFC Championship game. If Brees can isolate them, Marques Colston and co. will have a big game.
Brees and Payton will attack the inexperienced Colts secondary
Both teams:
In what is expected to be an end-to-end encounter, with two high octane offenses, it is critical that neither side has any red zone failures. Should the Colts fail to score on a visit to the Saints’ red zone, Brees might well march the Saints up the other end and establish a lead. Meanwhile, should the Saints fail, Manning will do the same. With both sides expecting to score on every drive, whoever fails first will be at a huge disadvantage, much like with a break of serve in tennis.
These are just some of the interesting match-ups that await us in tonight’s game, and this is why the NFL is so fascinating – the way that both sides will scheme and attempt to create mismatches in their favour. Super Bowl XLIV features the league’s best offensive game planner in Sean Payton, against its quickest mind in Peyton Manning. Whoever wins, there will be plenty of points on the board come full time.
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